Infection, Genetics and Evolution

In spite of well-established global immune landscape, SARS-CoV-2 is still able to further spread and continue causing infection waves. The current understanding about the reason behind is limited, and it is still difficult to predict the evolution or spreading tread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate whether the establishment of population immunity has changed the virus evolution or spreading pattern. In this investigation, one overall analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in the past several years have been carried out through one thorough genomic epidemiology study, with Germany being chosen as one representative location in view of the systemic efforts for genomic surveillance. The growth advantage of a few predominant variants in its early spreading period has been evaluated through a logistic regression model. The results have revealed that the major circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants since 2023 are mainly derived from the Omicron BA.2 family. Since middle of 2024, most predominant variants were produced primarily through recombination, indicating that the evolution derived from recombination might be the major driving force for the continuous spread of SARS-CoV-2 despite the existence of population immunity. Furthermore, the lower growth advantage of recently emerged variants might possibly lead to a tread of reduction in the frequency of infection wave. The information revealed from this investigation suggests that although short-term spreading tread can be affected by specific virus feature as well as local immunity landscape, the long-term spreading tread is mainly decided by the genomic diversity of the viruses, and can be predicted through phylogenetic and genomic epidemiology investigation. The results have emphasized the importance of maintaining the efforts for genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, which is essential from both medical and research perspectives.

We sequenced the nearly complete mitochondrial genome of the hammerhead flatworm Bipalium nobile Kawakatsu and Makino, 1982 using short-read sequencing technology, yielding a 16,018 bp genome comprising 12 protein-coding genes, 22 tRNA genes, and 2 rRNA genes. The composition and order of genes were consistent with those observed in the closely related species Bipalium kewense and Diversibipalium multilineatum, except for the position of tRNA-Glu. Phylogenetic analysis based on all mitochondrial proteins from species within the family Geoplanidae supports the monophyly of a clade comprising B. nobile, B. kewense, and D. multilineatum. The mitochondrial genome sequence obtained in this study provides a valuable resource for investigating the genetic diversity and population structure of B. nobile, a soil-dwelling predator with the potential for global spread as an invasive organism.

Burkholderia mallei, a facultative intracellular Gram-negative pathogen, is the causative agent of glanders that primarily affects solipeds and sporadically transmitted to humans. Current interventions mainly rely on antibiotics; however, increasing resistance and the lack of a licensed vaccine further complicate disease management. In the present study, a consensus-based computational framework was employed on the B. mallei turkey2 proteome. Total 59 proteins - including porins, TonB receptors, autotransporters, and efflux components - were identified as surface exposed outer membrane {beta}-barrel (OMBB) proteins that were used to design a multi-epitope vaccine (MEV) construct. B- and T-cell epitopes were predicted from 59 proteins, and ten epitopes each of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL), helper T-lymphocyte (HTL), and B-cell were chosen based on their antigenicity, non-allergenicity, non-toxicity, surface accessibility, and conservation across 32 B. mallei strains. The MEV was included with suitable adjuvants at the N-terminus to enhance its immunogenicity. The 780 amino acid MEV construct was predicted to be antigenic, and soluble upon overexpression with 62.69% random coils, while the rest formed -helices and {beta}-strands. The tertiary structure of the MEV was generated and subsequently validated, indicating good structural quality. Molecular docking of the MEV with toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) demonstrated strong affinity, and molecular dynamics simulation confirmed the structural stability of the MEV-TLR4 complex. In-silico immune simulation showed the capability of MEV to induce a strong immune response. The study proposes an MEV construct by utilizing surface exposed OMBB proteins which directly interact with the host and serve as effective immunogenic targets against B. mallei infection. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=80 SRC="FIGDIR/small/727591v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (40K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@10cd6d8org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1ed3f0borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@c6173forg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1204f73_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants caused by the peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), which is classified into four distinct genetic lineages (I-IV). A critical concern in the recent epidemiological history of PPRV is the rapid and widespread expansion of lineage IV (LIV) across West Africa over the past decade. This dominance suggests a potential adaptive advantage of circulating LIV strains in the regions current epidemiological context. In this study, we obtain the genome sequence of 26 new PPRV samples, including historical (pre-2000) and many recent African LIV isolates, offering the first opportunity to investigate the evolutionary history of LIV in Africa and identify genetic events potentially associated with its recent spread. Phylogenomic analyses implemented on a dataset of 167 curated PPRV genome sequences reveal that the most ancestral LIV group comprises strains circulating in Sub-Saharan Africa (designated clade LIVssa), providing robust evidence for an African origin of lineage IV. Our results further indicate that PPRV strains linked to the recent West African expansion of LIV belong to a specific LIVssa subgroup, termed NigB. We identified multiple signatures of selection pressure within the LIVssa sublineage, particularly in the NigB cluster. Several amino acid substitutions unique to LIVssa or NigB were detected, some of which may impact protein function and warrant prioritised investigation. Additional genomic data are required to confirm the association between the NigB group and the ongoing spread of LIV in West Africa. The evolutionary adaptations observed in LIVssa - potentially enhancing transmission efficiency, host range or pathogenicity - could undermine current disease control strategies in regions where PPR poses significant threats to food security and local economies. Author SummaryPeste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) infects sheep and goats across Africa, Middle East, Asia and Europe, causing disease with major impact on global economy and food security. One genetic lineage of PPRV, called lineage IV (LIV), is at the origin of most recent expansion of the distribution of the disease, including replacement of other lineages in areas of African where PPRV is historically present. Here, we generated genome sequences from PPRV LIV isolates from different dates and places to study the evolution of this genetic lineage and explore whether its recent spread can be associated with the appearance of new mutations in the virus genome. Our results provide evidence that the PPRV LIV originated in Sub-Saharan Africa and identify mutations present only virus isolates currently spready in new regions of Africa. Further research should investigate the impact of these mutations on protein functions and capacity of transmission of PPRV.

Cryptosporidium parvum is a protozoan parasite responsible for cryptosporidiosis, significantly threatening immunocompromised individuals, particularly HIV/AIDS patients, by causing severe diarrhea and potential mortality. Current treatments are largely ineffective, prompting investigations into new therapeutic options. This study evaluated two antiparasitic drugs: Mebendazole, used for helminth infections, and Artemisinin, used for malaria. The SKSR gene family encodes virulence factors in C. parvum, and Calcium-dependent protein kinase1 (CpCDPK1) regulates the life cycle of C. parvum; targeting these proteins may reduce growth and infection in hosts. In the current study, molecular docking was conducted taking Mebendazole and Artemisinin drugs as ligands, SKSR gene family and CpCDPK1 proteins as drug targets. Results with SKSR showed binding energy of -4.9 kcal/mol, -6.72 kcal/mol for Mebendazole and Artemisinin, respectively. Whereas, with CpCDPK1, the binding energies were -6.44 kcal/mol, -9.18 kcal/mol for Mebendazole and Artemisinin, respectively. Docking of Nitazoxanide (an in-use drug for C. parvum) with SKSR and CpCDPK1 revealed binding energies -4.2 kcal/mol, -4.81 kcal/mol, respectively. The stability of the proteins (targets) upon binding to the ligands was assessed by performing all-atom MD simulations for 100ns using the GROMACS package. No major variations were observed upon binding of Artemisinin and Mebendazole to SKSR and CpCDPK1. The findings of MD simulations imply that both proteins maintain their stability upon binding of Artemisinin and Mebendazole. Molecular Docking and MD simulation studies suggest that Artemisinin and Mebendazole are potential candidates for repurposing in the treatment of C. parvum infections, with recommendations for in vitro studies to validate these findings.

Pasteurella multocida is a facultative anaerobic, Gram-negative coccobacillus that causes pasteurellosis in companion animals (cats and dogs), livestock, and poultry. Close contact with infected animals poses a significant zoonotic risk to humans through bite wounds, scratches, licking and transfer of bodily fluids. Current treatment relies mainly on antibiotics, and the lack of a licensed human vaccine further exacerbates the challenge. In the present study, a consensus-based computational approach was employed on the P. multocida Past 9 proteome. A total of 29 outer membrane {beta}-barrel (OMBB) proteins, including TonB-dependent receptors, porins, autotransporters, adhesins and efflux pumps, were identified and used to design a multi-epitope vaccine (MEV) construct. B-cell and T-cell epitopes were predicted from the identified proteins. Ten epitopes each of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) and helper T-lymphocyte (HTL), and three B-cell epitopes were selected based on their antigenicity, non-allergenicity, non-toxicity, surface accessibility, and conservation across eight P. multocida human-infecting strains. The MEV was supplemented with suitable adjuvants at the N-terminus to enhance its immunogenicity. The MEV construct, with a length of 459 amino acids, was predicted to be antigenic, non-allergenic, non-toxic and soluble upon expression. The MEV structural model was generated and subsequently validated, which indicated good structural quality. Molecular docking between MEV and human toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) demonstrated strong binding affinity, and molecular dynamics simulation confirmed the structural stability of the MEV-TLR4 complex. Immune simulation of the MEV construct elicited a strong immune response. This study proposes a designed MEV candidate against human pasteurellosis and highlights OMBB proteins as potential immunogenic targets for vaccine development. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=132 SRC="FIGDIR/small/728361v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (54K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@320d63org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d0ddeorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1099802org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@dab304_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

The rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) is one of the most widely used animal models in biomedical research, both as it resembles humans in key biological aspects and as it is characterized by a broad geographic range. Most of the individuals housed in U.S. research colonies have been sampled from either China or India, though notably the source population of these animals has significantly shifted over time. Given the substantial genetic and immunological differences between these populations, a deeper understanding of the underlying population structure is critically important for biomedical interpretation. Despite this, the demographic histories of these two populations remain poorly resolved. Here, we present an analysis of whole-genome, PacBio HiFi long-read sequencing data from ten unrelated individuals of each population, applying four related model- and non-model based demographic inference approaches, in order to reconstruct their ancestral history. We evaluated the fit of the subsequently estimated models against the empirical data, and incorporated underlying uncertainty in the mutation rates used for scaling. We inferred a well-fitting population history characterized by substantial structure between Chinese and Indian populations, with a split time [~]140,000 generations ago from an ancestral population of [~]65,000 individuals. We additionally inferred the subsequent history of size change within, and gene flow between, these populations, reaching the current estimated sizes of [~]220,000 individuals in the Chinese population and [~]14,000 individuals in the Indian population. The robust baseline demographic model established in this study will serve as a valuable resource for future research on this species, including for improved fine-scale recombination mapping, selection inference, and association studies.

The ichneumonid subfamily Eucerotinae has been thought to be almost absent from the tropics, with the only known Afrotropical species found in Madagascar. We report the subfamily to be present in the mainland Afrotropics, and describe a new species, Euceros species 1 from Uganda and Cameroon (name not yet shown in preprint). The subfamily had likely not been observed in the mainland Afrotropics before due to low abundances and insufficient sampling. More Eucerotinae likely remain to be discovered in tropical Africa and Asia, although tropical America may genuinely have few eucerotine species. Much more extensive sampling will be needed before it is possible to make confident estimates of how eucerotine diversity is distributed globally.

Intraspecific morphological variability presents a complex challenge for biological systematics and biomonitoring, particularly for organisms with high phenotypic plasticity, such as zooplankton. Morphological differences between individuals of the water flea species Bosmina longirostris (Crustacea: Cladocera) are difficult to distinguish visually, parthenogenetic females look morphologically uniform within the species; nevertheless, they demonstrate differences attributable to their geographic origin and developmental stage. A reference dataset of microscopic images was created for the study, including populations from two geographically separated regions (seven ones from European Russia and seven ones from Sakhalin Island in the Pacific Ocean (Far East of Russia) and two age groups, demonstrating the ability of a neural network classify to successfully the intraspecific morphological variation. This study demonstrates that deep learning methods are prospective for the detection and understanding of fine morphological intraspecific differences in the cladocerans.

As part of preparedness activities supporting pathogens classified under the UK High Consequence Infectious Diseases (HCID) framework, we previously evaluated both a whole-genome tiling amplicon sequencing scheme and a pan-viral hybridisation capture approach (TWIST-CVRP) for sequencing Andes virus (ANDV). In light of the recent outbreak, we make available viral sequencing datasets generated using a historical ANDV isolate (Chile, 1997). In addition, we provide an evaluation of tiling amplicon scheme performance and present recommended primer updates informed by in silico comparison with the recently released outbreak genome. These datasets are intended to support benchmarking, validation, and optimisation of bioinformatic pipelines across the community.

Introduction: Synthetic oligopeptides provide a rapid and cost-efficient approach to developing antibodies and diagnostics for emerging viral variants. Methods: This study computationally and experimentally characterized a synthetic peptide analog of the SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomain 2 major disulfide loop (SD2MDL), designated S621 (CPVAIHADQLTPTWRVYSTC). Binding affinity was computationally estimated using the Heuristic Affinity Prediction Tool for Immune Complexes (HAPTIC), while experimental validation was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with rabbit-derived antipeptide antibodies. Clinical diagnostic accuracy testing was done using plasma samples from RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients and pre-COVID-19 controls. Results: S621 demonstrated nanomolar binding affinity (Kdapp = 1.14 nM) and high avidity (3.67 nM), closely matching HAPTIC predictions (3.54 nM). Diagnostic evaluation yielded a sensitivity of 89.92% and specificity of 27.79%, corresponding to an overall accuracy of 71.79%. Discussion: These findings demonstrate that a single synthetic peptide derived from a conserved spike subdomain can function as a high-affinity surrogate for full-length antigens, supporting its potential application in rapid peptide-based immunodiagnostics.

Hyalomma lusitanicum is a characteristic tick species of the western Mediterranean region, with a well-established distribution across the Iberian Peninsula. It is strongly associated with wild ungulates, particularly red deer, as well as livestock, to which it can transmit a wide range of pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, and protozoa. Here, we present three genomic resources for H. lusitanicum: a scaffold-scale nuclear genome, the complete mitochondrial genome, and the complete genome of its associated Francisella bacterial endosymbiont. The nuclear genome assembly spans 1.81 Gb and comprises 59 scaffolds, with a scaffold N50 of 153.6 Mb (L50 = 5) and no gaps, indicating high contiguity and completeness with a gene annotation completeness BUSCO score of 97.1 %. Genome annotation of the nuclear assembly identified 20,638 protein-coding genes, 1,422 non-coding genes, and 5,775 pseudogenes. A total of 18 scaffolds were assembled as putative chromosomes, exceeding the 11 chromosomes inferred as ancestral; however, synteny analyses suggest that several scaffolds likely represent fragmented portions of the same chromosome, probably due to incomplete Hi-C scaffolding. Despite this, the assembly represents one of the most complete tick nuclear genomes generated to date. In addition, we report the complete genome of a Francisella endosymbiont (1.51 Mb, 1,679 genes), characterized by a high proportion of pseudogenes and reduced genome size, consistent with patterns of genome reduction associated with obligate symbiosis. Together, these genomic resources provide a framework to investigate local adaptation and host-symbiont evolution, and to support improved surveillance, control, and management strategies for species of public health relevance.

Salmonella spp. remains one of the leading foodborne pathogens worldwide, and the circulation of multidrug-resistant strains in the poultry industry poses a significant challenge. In this study, five isolates from poultry litter swabs (commercial broiler chickens) belonging to the Salmonella Heidelberg and Salmonella Minnesota serovars were characterized using an integrated approach involving phenotypic resistance profiling, whole-genome sequencing, structural prioritization of molecular targets, and in silico screening of ligands. All isolates exhibited multidrug resistance phenotypes and genetic repertoires consistent with resistance to {beta}-lactams, sulfonamides, and tetracyclines, as well as determinants linked to efflux systems, virulence, and persistence. Genomic analysis allowed for the prioritization of five proteins for structural investigation: CTX-M-2, CMY-2, Sul2, AcrB, and SpvC. Sequence-structure validation revealed high correspondence between the proteins of the isolates and the experimental structures selected for CMY-2, Sul2, AcrB, and SpvC, while CTX-M-2 was modeled with high structural confidence. Molecular docking analyses with GNINA revealed distinct behaviors among the targets. Sul2 showed biological relevance but a more conservative structural response, with no significant gain after analog generation. In contrast, AcrB stood out as the most promising target, with analogs generated by BRICS yielding better scores and, in some cases, coherent international networks identified by PLIP. The results demonstrate that the integration of phenotype, comparative genomics, and structural prioritization constitutes a rational strategy for selecting targets and molecular candidates in multidrug-resistant avian strains of S. Heidelberg and S. Minnesota.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) causes significant encephalitis across the Asia-Pacific region. Current vaccines target historical genotype III strains, but emerging genotypes,potentially driven by vaccine-mediated selective pressure, threaten vaccine effectiveness through altered envelope protein sequences that may reduce antibody cross-neutralisation. This study employed integrated sequence and structural analyses to identify E protein mutations affecting neutralising antibody binding and protein stability. The study curated JEV polyprotein sequences from NCBI, performed multiple sequence alignment, and used Shannon entropy to pinpoint highly variable positions. Mutations occurring at [≥]1% frequency within high-entropy regions were selected for analysis. From 34 initially identified mutations, four candidates were prioritized based on structural stabilization potential. Mutations were evaluated through FoldX stability predictions, molecular docking with antibody 2H4 using HADDOCK3, and molecular dynamics simulations. Binding energies were calculated using MM-GBSA analysis. Results demonstrated that all mutant E-2H4 complexes remained stable during simulations, with root-mean-square deviation plateauing after equilibration and minimal localized changes in root-mean-square fluctuation. These findings suggest that EDIII substitutions represent important candidates for further investigation to understand genotype-specific variations and inform next-generation vaccine development strategies against emerging JEV strains.

Successive dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks can progressively reshape population immunity influencing disease expression and diagnostic performance. Objectives The aim was to evaluate the impact of secondary infections across sequential outbreaks on clinical severity, serotype dynamics and diagnostic concordance. Methods This retrospective study analyzed 976 febrile-stage samples from three sequential outbreaks in Misiones, Argentina. For serotyping and clinical analyses, 869 viremic samples confirmed by at least one direct method were included (2016: n=512; 2019: n=148; 2024: n=209). Additionally, 318 samples, including 107 non-viremic cases, were used to compare NS1 rapid diagnostic tests (NS1 Ag) and RT-PCR. Viral serotyping and clinical and laboratory markers of disease severity were evaluated. Results Secondary infections increased from 31.05% (2016) to 43.24% (2019) and 53.87% (2024) (p<0.0010). Serotype distribution shifted from DENV-1 predominance in 2016 (95.12%), DENV-1/DENV-4 co-circulation in 2019 (60.71%/39.29%), and DENV-2 predominance in 2024 (97.60%). Secondary infections were associated with more severe disease manifestations, particularly in 2024, with higher hematocrit (p=0.0120) and hemoglobin (p=0.0080), lower white blood cells (p=0.020) and platelet counts (p=0.0030), and elevated AST (p=0.0007) and ALT (p=0.0130). Concordance between NS1 Ag and RT-PCR was lower in secondary infections (k=0.457 vs k=0.759, p=0.0013). Conclusions The rising frequency of secondary infections may affect both clinical severity and diagnostic performance during outbreaks. The clinical impact was more evident in 2024, likely associated with the introduction of a new serotype. These findings highlight the need for optimized surveillance and diagnostic strategies to improve case detection and patient management during epidemics.

For over four decades, the bivalve Anomalocardia flexuosa has been recorded in Hong Kong coastal waters. However, the known native distribution of this heavily exploited commercial species is restricted to the Atlantic coast of South America, raising questions about the biogeographical validity of the Hong Kong populations. By employing an integrative taxonomic approach combining morphological re-evaluations and molecular phylogenetic analysis of the COI gene, we confirm that the species in Shui Hau, Hong Kong, China, has been historically misidentified. The population belongs to Cryptonema producta (syn. Anomalocardia producta).

In Bangladesh, spiny lobsters are vital to the economy as a key export. A total of 4 species of spiny lobsters from the genus Panulirus have been identified in Bangladeshi waters (Panulirus homarus, P. ornatus, P. polyphagus and P. versicolor). This study aimed to identify and update the existing list of spiny lobster species found in Bangladeshi waters by examining their morphological characteristics and the phylogenetic profile of the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) gene marker. A new species, Panulirus longipes, was recorded for the first time from the Saint Martins Island, Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh. This species is characterized by white spots and longitudinal orange stripes on its walking legs. In the Neighbor-joining (NJ) tree, the sequences of the same species were grouped together under a single clade for COI and demonstrating the effectiveness of marker genes in distinguishing between lobster species. The results indicate a new lobster species in Bangladesh, enhancing the known diversity of lobsters in the region and revealing previously undocumented species.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small noncoding RNAs that play critical roles in regulating immune responses and have emerged as potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets in complex diseases. Leishmaniasis is a neglected disease that compromises host immunity and is associated with challenging treatments regimens. Leishmania amazonensis (L. amazonensis), an intracellular protozoan parasite, causes cutaneous leishmaniasis by replicating inside mammalian macrophages to establish infection. In this context, miRNAs have emerged as vital post-transcriptional factors that regulate the inflammatory landscape during infection. In this study, we aimed to analyze the function of miR-721 in macrophages during L. amazonensis infection by integrating in silico miR-721 target prediction with RNAseq data from macrophages of two distinct mouse genotypes, resistant C57BL/6 and susceptible BALB/c. We found that miR-721 is induced in macrophages infected with L. amazonensis, but is not in LPS-stimulated macrophages, suggesting a TLR4-independent activation. Integrating miR-721 target prediction with comparative transcriptomic analyses in resistant C57BL/6 and susceptible BALB/c models revealed the TNF-IRF1 axis as a primary miR-721-associated regulatory network. Specifically, miR-721 is predicted to target the 3UTRs of Tnf and Irf1 to suppress the inflammatory response. Functional inhibition of miR-721 successfully restored Tnf and Irf1 expression and reduced the amastigote burden over 24 hours. Furthermore, we showed that the miR-721/TNF-IRF1 axis regulates downstream genes associated with macrophage response, such as Serpine1, Csf1, Cd69 and Maf. Our work demonstrated that Leishmania induces miR-721, which negatively modulates the TNF-IRF1 axis, thereby suppressing the immune response and favoring parasite persistence. While C57BL/6 macrophages exhibit a robust activation of the TNF-IRF1 network, promoting inflammatory response, BALB/c macrophage showed a breakdown of this network. This was associated with post-transcriptional suppression of inflammatory responses, thereby favoring parasite persistence. These findings link miR-721 to the establishment of macrophage polarization, providing relevant insights into the mechanisms of parasite subversion of the host immune response.

This investigation aimed at compiling all phylogenetic lineages within and around genus Cyanoboletus. The evolutionary inference obtained from the nuclear ribosomal genes internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) suggests that part of the species currently classified in Cyanoboletus belong in lineages separate from the genus, thus suggesting a narrower boundary that includes only the species that develop a strong staining reaction to touch and to air exposure of the context. The separate lineages are the monotypic Cupreoboletus genus and a few species that do not develop such reaction, which are part of a clade together with genera Cacaoporus and Acyanoboletus, thus broadening the concept of Cacaoporus to encompass all of them. The emerging 3C perspective of Cupreoboletus, Cacaoporus and Cyanoboletus offers a remarkably consistent morphological diagnosis, overcoming the problems of a too broad concept for Cyanoboletus. This work reveals that Boletus neotropicus, B. novae-zelandiae and B. sensibilis belong respectively in Cyanoboletus, Cacaoporus and Lanmaoa, and by studying multigene alignment concatenates it identifies lineages that probably represent undescribed species: at least four in Cacaoporus and at least five in Cyanoboletus. Diagnostic tables and dichotomic keys are presented by geographic region. The present work also includes a study of the phylogenetic position of Neoboletus flavosanguineus, a species once classified in Cyanoboletus. The complexity of assigning species epithets in some lineages is addressed, namely for the boundaries between Cacaoporus instabilis and Ca. fagaceophilus as well as the diversity under the names Cyanoboletus sinopulverulentus and Cy. pulverulentus. The overall picture of evolutionary lineages sets a framework for the choice of reference data that can provide, in future phylogenetic studies that involve the 3C, a balanced and efficient coverage. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=197 SRC="FIGDIR/small/724631v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (23K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7f618corg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@dd6a14org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@5f7399org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@9e7443_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

Malaria transmission in Nigeria is highly seasonal and climate-sensitive, yet routine surveillance and meteorological datasets remain underutilized for predictive modelling at subnational levels. This study modelled seasonal malaria incidence trends in Nasarawa State, Nigeria using routine surveillance and climatic data. A retrospective ecological time-series study was conducted using monthly confirmed malaria incidence data from all 13 Local Government Areas of Nasarawa State between 2021 and 2025. Rainfall and temperature were examined as the climatic predictors. Seasonal decomposition and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the temporal patterns and lag structures. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) models were developed using the Box-Jenkins framework. Model performance was evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Malaria incidence showed pronounced seasonal peaks, with the highest transmission occurring during the rainy season. Cross-correlation analysis identified rainfall at a one-month lag and contemporaneous temperature as significant predictors of malaria incidence. The SARIMAX model outperformed the univariate SARIMA model, achieving strong predictive accuracy (MAPE = 8.7%). Forecast projections indicate sustained transmission with a peak incidence expected between June and August 2026. Malaria transmission in Nasarawa follows a predictable seasonal pattern that is influenced by climatic variability. Incorporating rainfall and temperature into SARIMAX models improves the forecasting performance and provides evidence supporting climate-informed malaria surveillance and preparedness in endemic settings.